Does Britain Really Have a Shortage of Housing?

Interesting reading this afternoon.

Albert Edwards writing in Societe Generale’s weekly Global Strategy note to clients has blamed the Bank of England for causing the housing crisis, arguing that Britain doesn’t actually have a shortage of housing, just a big imbalance in supply and demand.
The report highlights the Bank of England’s reliance on quantative easing going as far as saying Carney is a “bubble-blower extraordinaire.”

Here is an extract from notes sent to clients:

One example where I find market participants have totally swallowed the policy-maker’s mantra is that the solution to the UK housing shortage is to build more houses. This propaganda has been repeated so much that it is has become the 100% accepted truth. Indeed, it would have escaped nobody’s attention that UK house prices have been booming and are at nose-bleed levels of expense on simple price/earnings measures.

Edwards continues:
I’m sorry, but if monetary policy is too loose, you can concrete over the entire length and breadth of the UK and house prices would still rise. There is no shortage of housing. What there is, is an imbalance between demand and supply and demand is excessive because of crazily loose monetary policy. It’s as simple as that. And, as the most prescient guys at Fathom Consulting have pointed out, if there really is a shortage of houses, surely rents, like house prices, would be rising too, way in excess of other prices in the UK economy?
Politicians have cottoned onto the fact that rising house prices equals more votes and so it seems the UK’s political elite will do anything in their power to keep house price inflation. In fact UK house prices have risen 7% per annum since 1980 creating a huge bubble that is only sustainable with ever-increasing government support.

Government support that has bid prices up in relation to income, the very same support that is supposedly to help  first time buyers such as “Funding for Lending” and “Help to Buy” is just deliberate stimulus to keep house prices rising!
So if government continues with its Quantative Easing and it’s smoke and mirrors support for first time buyers which has resulted in fewer first time buyers and house prices five times average earnings they can build all the houses they want.

With loose monetary policy in place they can never meet demand as every man and is dog is happy to take a punt on the one way bet that is British bricks and mortar.

Are UK House Prices set for a 15% fall?

At Rooms in Cardiff we aim to provide landlords, home owners and property investor’s detailed analysis of the property market in Cardiff, Wales and across the UK.

There has been a wealth of housing data released all hinting at which direction UK house prices are going over the next 12 months, but at Rooms in Cardiff we have been doing our own online research and wanted to share this with our readers.

 Net Mortgage Lending Growth

The Bank of England (BoE) provides monthly data on UK net mortgage lending growth (NMLG). Historically this has proved a handy guide to house prices.

September 2012 saw UK NMLG remain at 1.1%. That compares with annual growth of 1.9% two years ago, 5.7% in December 2008 and 11.1% in February 2007. Meanwhile, the October Nationwide UK house price index was down by 0.9% year-on-year.

What does this mean for UK house prices?

As you can see from the above graph, this long-term collapse in NMLG suggests UK house prices are standing at the cliff face. If they follow net lending trends, residential property values could slump by over 15%.

Rooms in Cardiff is a provider of landlord services across Cardiff and South Wales specialising in multi let property, Student housing, professional house share and house of multiple occupancy (HMO) and offer the following services:

Rooms to Rent in Cardiff  £120 Fixed Fee Tenant Finder (No Tenant No Fee)

Property Listing page to advertise your available rooms on Spareroom, EasyRoomMate, Gumtree and Zoopla until let for one Fixed Price.

HMO Rent Guarantee No Void Periods & No Fees

You can contact Rooms in Cardiff via email info@RoomsInCardiff.co.uk

Telephone 0845 496 0000

or by completing the form below to arrange a call from one of our team.

HMO Cardiff For Sale

Earlier this month we wrote a blog post titled “Cardiff Student Housing or Professional House Share?” which discussed the fall in student numbers for the current academic year and the number of empty HMO and Multi Let properties available for rent and for sale across the Cathays, Gabalfa and Heath areas of Cardiff and whether landlords should be diversifying and looking at the professional house share market.

Well today I am writing about the current valuation of HMO and Multi Let properties in Cardiff after being contacted by a Cardiff estate agent with an all too familiar story.

Here is the situation the landlord has always provided Cardiff Student Housing in Cathays and Heath areas of Cardiff and I am sure they have done very well over the years but now the Cardiff student housing market is changing as large corporates are providing housing, such as Student Castle, student numbers have dropped and the student accommodation is not filled.

What Are The Landlords Options?

Well there are four main options:

  1. The landlord can rent the whole house to a family
  2. The landlord can look to continue down the multi let route and provide a professional house share
  3. Contact a specialist HMO Rent Guarantee provider
  4. Sell the property

Sounds straight forward, but many of the properties for sale and to let geared towards the Cardiff Student Housing market need a large amount of investment to bring them to a standard required for options 1,2 and 3, so the only option is to sell!

Option 4: For Sale

This sounds a logical option for the landlord who may not wish to spend £20-30k on their property so a “For Sale” board is put in the front of the house.  A few viewings later and an offer is accepted the landlord has the price he wants, but it’s not that simple.

These HMO and Multi Let properties which are geared for the Cardiff Student Housing market are often set up with locks on doors so straight away you can no longer arrange a standard BTL mortgage the buyer will have to look at a specialist HMO mortgage or commercial finance which is considerably more expensive to arrange than you high street BTL.

Secondly even if locks aren’t on internal doors and there is no whiff that the property is set out as a HMO or Multi Let the rental income versus interest only mortgage payments will no stack up unless a hefty deposit is put down which is also required for HMO and commercial finance as often the property is overvalued in today’s market.

So that’s why I am hearing the same story over and over from Cardiff estate agents, the vendor agreed a sale price but the deal has fallen through as the purchaser cannot raise the required finance.

So as we pass Fresher’s Week and all students are settled for the 2012-13 academic year how many HMO and multi lets will be left untenanted and let standing for sale? Quite a few as many need £10-30K being spent on them.

What’s The Outlook?

If you are looking to sell your Cardiff student housing and it requires substantial work you are probably going to have to be prepared to lower your expectations when looking for a sale as often a deposit of £50K is needed and hefty fees are incurred when raising HMO or commercial finance.

Rooms in Cardiff is the place to go for those looking to house share in Cardiff and further afield in South Wales. Whether you are looking for Cardiff student housing or a professional house share, Rooms in Cardiff is your number one resource for private landlord lettings, house of multiple occupation (HMO), multi let property and to find your next housemate.

You can contact Rooms in Cardiff via email info@webletz.co.uk

Telephone 0845 496 0000